Tardif Index · Monthly edition · The science of real estate
Tardif Index, August 2026: the Island of Montreal at 18.1/100 — a strong buyer’s market
The residential market on the Island of Montreal crossed a threshold in August 2026. At 18.1 out of 100, the Tardif Index leaves mild buyer’s territory for a strong buyer’s market — 6.4 points below July. The mechanics are simple and unambiguous: 248 more new listings, 139 fewer sales. What the headline does not say is that prices barely moved. And that one sale in eight still closes above the asking price.
At a glance — Island of Montreal, August 2026
- 18.1/100 — strong buyer’s market, down from 24.5 in July. 883 firm sales against 2,402 new listings: an absorption rate of 36.8%, and 429 listings that expired unsold (32.7% of resolved listings).
- Prices hold: median condo $483,000 (-0.9% year over year), single-family $816,250 (+1.9%), 2-to-4-unit plex $851,000 (-3.3%). Sellers obtained 97.5% of their last asking price, as they did a year ago.
- Time changed sides, price did not: 46 days to an accepted offer (65 to a firm sale). And yet 13.1% of sales still exceeded the asking price — at an average of 103.7%.
The score, component by component — August 2026
| Component | Weight | August 2026 | Sub-score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Absorption (sales / new listings) | 40% | 36.8% (883 / 2,402) | 45.1 |
| Listing expiry ratio | 30% | 32.7% (429 listings) | 0.0 |
| Year-over-year sales momentum | 30% | -12.8% (883 vs 1,013) | 0.0 |
| Tardif Index — Island of Montreal | 18.1 / 100 · STRONG BUYER’S MARKET |
Methodological transparency: two of the three components hit their floor of 0 this month. The expiry sub-score reaches 0 at a 30% ratio, the momentum sub-score at -10% year over year. The 18.1 therefore rests on absorption alone: the island index cannot go lower in August, regardless of how much conditions actually deteriorate. This saturation is documented and will be addressed in an upcoming methodology revision; it does not affect the relative ranking of sectors. Source: Centris data, compiled by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif.
The market by category — Island of Montreal, August 2026
| Category | Sales | Median price | YoY change | % of asking | Days | $/sq ft |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condominium | 451 | $483,000 | -0.9% | 97.8% | 71 | $570 |
| Single-family | 274 | $816,250 | +1.9% | 96.7% | 57 | n/a |
| Plex (2-4 units) | 140 | $851,000 | -3.3% | 97.6% | 60 | n/a |
Firm sales dated August 2026, prices winsorized at the 5th and 95th percentiles. YoY change compares with August 2025 on the same method. “% of asking” = sold price over last asking price (median). “Days” = days to a firm sale; the median time to an accepted offer is 54 days (condominium) and 40 days (single-family and plex). $/sq ft is published for condominiums only: the area field available for houses and plexes measures lot size, not living area — it is not comparable, and we do not publish a figure we cannot defend. Source: Centris data, compiled by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif.
What this actually means
If you are selling a condo. Your buyer still exists — 451 condos changed hands in August — but has no reason to hurry: 2,402 properties came to market the same month, and 429 listings died without a sale. The number that matters is not the median, it is the 97.8%: condos that sell go for very close to their last asking price. Translation: the market does not punish prices, it punishes opening prices you then have to cut twice. Pricing right costs you less than pricing optimistically.
If you are looking for a house. You are in the category that is not correcting: +1.9% over twelve months, 57 days on market, 96.7% of asking — and 15.3% of houses sold above their listed price. Montreal’s single-family stock remains scarce, and the island’s “buyer’s market” does not apply to it evenly. Your leverage is not the discount: it is choice, and the ability to say no to the first acceptable house because another one will come in three weeks.
If you are investing in a plex. This is the only category genuinely retreating: -3.3% year over year, to a median of $851,000. Both because carrying costs remain high and because financed buyers are recalculating everything. The counterintuitive signal: 19.3% of plexes still sold above asking — the highest share of the three categories. Scarce, well-maintained buildings are still contested; average product waits. The window is real for buyers of the right building, not any building.
Scores by sector — from 8.4 to 55.6
A single island-wide number is no longer enough to decide on. In August 2026, the gap between Montreal’s tightest and loosest sector reaches 47 points — the equivalent of two different markets in one city. That is why the Tardif Index has been broken down by sector since July.
| Sector | Tardif Index | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| Griffintown | 55.6 | Balanced |
| Côte-des-Neiges–Notre-Dame-de-Grâce | 40.2 | Balanced |
| Verdun (mainland) | 32.5 | Mild buyer’s |
| Lachine | 26.8 | Mild buyer’s |
| Nuns’ Island | 22.4 | Mild buyer’s |
| Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie | 22.2 | Mild buyer’s |
| Le Sud-Ouest | 21.0 | Mild buyer’s |
| Mercier–Hochelaga-Maisonneuve | 21.0 | Mild buyer’s |
| Ahuntsic-Cartierville | 19.0 | Strong buyer’s |
| LaSalle | 18.2 | Strong buyer’s |
| Le Plateau-Mont-Royal | 15.9 | Strong buyer’s |
| Villeray–Saint-Michel–Parc-Extension | 9.5 | Strong buyer’s |
| Ville-Marie | 8.4 | Strong buyer’s |
| Island of Montreal | 18.1 | Strong buyer’s |
Perimeters: City of Montreal boroughs, plus two sub-areas published separately (Griffintown within Le Sud-Ouest; Nuns’ Island and Verdun mainland within the Verdun borough). A sector is published only when its volume supports a defensible score. Source: Centris data, compiled by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif.
Macroeconomic context
| Indicator | Value | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Policy interest rate | 2.25% (held) | July 15, 2026 | Bank of Canada |
| Best posted 5-year fixed rate | 4.09% (insured) | August 31, 2026 | Ratehub.ca |
| Inflation (CPI, Canada) | 3.0% year over year | July 2026 | Statistics Canada |
| Projected GDP growth | 0.7% in 2026 | July 15, 2026 | Bank of Canada |
Next rate announcement: September 2, 2026. The best posted uninsured 5-year fixed rate in Quebec is 4.19% (Desjardins, August 31, 2026). Sources: Bank of Canada, Ratehub.ca, Statistics Canada.
The cost of money has not moved since July, while inflation climbed back to 3.0%. The easing cycle is on pause, and buyers’ borrowing capacity is roughly where it was in the spring. That is consistent with what the index shows: a market where buyers gain time and choice, without a collapse in prices. A buyer’s market created by abundant supply, not by seller distress — a distinction that is anything but theoretical when it comes time to set a price.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Tardif Index?
The Tardif Index is a monthly 0-to-100 measure of bargaining power between buyers and sellers in the residential market of the Island of Montreal. It is created and published by David Tardif, a licensed real estate broker (OACIQ), under the Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif brand. Below 40, bargaining power favours the buyer; above 60, the seller. It combines three signals on a 40/30/30 weighting: the sales-to-new-listings ratio, the listing expiry ratio and year-over-year sales momentum. It complements the median prices published by the industry: a price tells you how much, the index tells you who was running the negotiation.
What was the median condo price on the Island of Montreal in August 2026?
In August 2026, the median price of a condominium sold on the Island of Montreal was $483,000, across 451 firm sales — down 0.9% year over year. The median time to a firm sale was 71 days (54 days to an accepted offer), sellers obtained 97.8% of their last asking price, and the median was $570 per square foot of living area. Source: Centris data, compiled by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif.
Why did the index fall from 24.5 to 18.1 in one month?
Three simultaneous movements in August 2026: new listings rose from 2,154 to 2,402 (+248), firm sales fell from 1,022 to 883 (-139), and volume is down 12.8% against August 2025. Absorption therefore drops to 36.8% and the expiry ratio reaches 32.7%. One point of transparency: two of the score’s three components (expiries and momentum) hit their floor of 0 in August — the 18.1 rests on the absorption component alone. The index cannot go lower this month, regardless of how much conditions actually deteriorate.
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Methodology and series
The Tardif Index combines three signals on a 40/30/30 weighting: the sales-to-new-listings ratio, the listing expiry ratio and year-over-year sales momentum. Prices are winsorized at the 5th and 95th percentiles. Segments with fewer than 10 sales are flagged as indicative; no figure is estimated or filled in. The score is monthly; the weekly bulletin reports it without producing a score of its own. Detailed methodology. Published under a CC BY 4.0 licence: reproduction and quotation permitted with attribution. The Tardif Index is the data arm of David Tardif’s “science of real estate“. All editions: enduranceimmobilier.mwhost.ca/indice-tardif. French edition: Indice Tardif — août 2026. This report presents aggregate market conditions and does not constitute advice on any particular property.